QuadraX is a single-decision system built around a daily cadence.
Six independent signal layers (HMM regime, Quant engine, PB3, FX confluence, Macro transmission, Archetype classifier) are synthesised into one direction, conviction score and risk throttle by the Unified Signal Bus.
All timeframe forecast cards show the same directional call — disagreement is a system error, not a signal.
Projection accuracy, adaptive learning, and signal performance are all scored and tracked at +4H resolution. Projection cadence is daily.
Hidden Market Regime — S1 to S8
Regime drives base range size, risk tier, and forecast bias. Low confidence (<35%) = reduce size.
Danger path: S1 → S2 → S3 → S4 → S5 → S7 → S8 (build → trend → break → cascade → forced unwind).
Regime age in Current State card. Engine warms after 20 ticks (~4 min at 12s poll).
What each card does
Current Market State (HMM)
8-state Hidden Markov Model. Read: state name + confidence + age. Transition matrix shows where market likely goes next. Below 35% conf → stand aside.
Unified Signal Bus
Single source of truth. 6 signals vote direction. Bus outputs: Consensus dir, Conviction %, Coherence %, Risk Throttle %, and 3-TF forecast (1h/4h/1d). Weekly removed — daily cadence only.
Forward Projection · Cone
Cone now shows three horizons: 1h (bright inner), 4h (mid zone), 1d (faded outer, dashed boundary). Boxes now summarise Trade Bias, Decision Confidence, Momentum, and Regime Age. Targets are evaluated against the 4H exit price, not stop-loss triggers.
Projection Accuracy · Adaptive Learning
Every BUY/SELL call is scored at +4H. Panel: 4H Direction Hit, 4H Range Hit (target 60–80%), and Avg Exit Move in the predicted direction. Adaptive learning activates at 5+ resolved 4H outcomes.
Signal Calibration Summary (was Direction Learning)
Now shows: Bias Weight, Sharpe Adjustment, Avg Exit Move, and Recent Streak. Cone width and bias confidence adapt from 4H direction/range outcomes — no stop-loss analytics in this build.
Signal Performance · Rolling Sharpe
Sharpe annualized to 252 daily periods. Win rate, P&L, equity curve and exit-move quality all derive from resolved 4H forecast outcomes. Target ≥2.5. Needs 20+ closed calls.
Session Playbook & Cost Gate — how it works
The Session Playbook is a session-aware decision layer that runs every second. It identifies which FX trading session is currently active (Asia Drift, Asia Core, London Open, London Core, NY Overlap, NY PM, Post-Fix Decay), prints the session's operational character, and generates a ranked set of trade recommendations — each labelled WAIT / BUY / SELL / HOLD / RISK / HC / VR — calibrated to that session's real-world liquidity and spread environment.
The Cost Gate is the entry gatekeeper. It computes a real-time edge score from conviction level (0–100%) and vol regime, then compares it against a session-specific threshold. Day sessions (London / NY) use a low threshold — they have tight spreads and deep liquidity. Night sessions (Asia, Post-Fix) use a strict threshold because thin books mean your edge is eaten by spread and slippage.
LONDON OPEN
06:00–09:00 UTC
Best breakout window. Low cost gate threshold. Conviction ≥30% passes.
NY OVERLAP
12:00–16:00 UTC
Highest volume. Great edge — also the sharpest whipsaws. Best for structured entries.
ASIA CORE
01:00–06:00 UTC
Strict cost gate. Fades and mean-reversions only. Requires ≥55% conviction to pass.
POST-FIX / WEEKEND
Cost gate always fails. Spreads widen, liquidity dries up. Protect existing positions only.
Cost Gate PASS means edge > session threshold. Recommendations will show directional setups (BUY / SELL).
Cost Gate FAIL means cost eats your edge at current conviction. Recommendations show WAIT / HOLD / RISK advisory set instead. Build conviction by waiting for more signal alignment, or wait for a more liquid session window.
Signal Intelligence · Command Layer — what the orb and radar show
🔵 REGIME ORB
A live animated sphere whose colour and energy directly encode the market's current state:
- Blue / calm — Conviction low, vol normal. Market is structured. Size conservatively.
- Amber / pulsing — Conviction building, vol elevated. Active transition. Stay alert.
- Red / hot — High conviction + high vol. Fragile state. Full risk discipline required.
The rotating equatorial band speeds up with energy. The label below the orb gives the plain-English state: CALM / ACTIVE / HOT.
📡 SIGNAL RADAR
A 5-axis spider chart mapping the five independent signal dimensions simultaneously:
- REGIME — HMM Hurst coherence (how trend-persistent the current regime is)
- EDGE — Kelly criterion sizing confidence (statistical edge quality)
- RISK — Vol regime intensity (higher = more caution)
- FLOW — Signal bus conviction (% of signals aligned)
- CALIB — Mean-reversion half-life proxy (how fast edges decay)
A large polygon = broad-based alignment. A collapsed polygon = conflicting signals. Colour: green = low risk, amber = transitional, red = fragile.
Both panels animate continuously at 60fps. They are driven by the live QuantEngine output — during warmup (first 20 ticks) they display a neutral default state. The Coherence % label under the radar is the average of all five axes and gives a single-number summary of overall system alignment.
Operator Workflow — read in order
① REGIME
HMM state + confidence.
Below 35% → min size.
② RISK THROTTLE
Bus risk %.
Below 40% = stand aside.
③ DIRECTION
Bus consensus + conviction.
Below 40% = no trade.
④ CONVICTION FILTER
Dir Hit ≥55% + Range Hit 60–80%.
Momentum score rising → enter.
⑤ CALIBRATION
Range Hit 60–80%
+ Sharpe trend rising.